From Stabilisation to Growth: Ireland's Real Estate Market Enters a New Chapter

The Fundamentals Hold

Ireland continues to be regarded as a core investment market, attracting both domestic and international capital. The underlying economic indicators are strong: GDP growth is forecast at 3% for 2026, unemployment remains below 5%, and corporation tax receipts reached approximately €30 billion in 2025. Strong fundamentals, combined with continued price adjustments across sectors, are drawing equity off the sidelines. The constraint in recent years has not been a lack of available capital — it has been price uncertainty, and lack of stock. As pricing stabilises, deal activity is accelerating.

A Sectoral Picture

Each sector sits at a different point in its trajectory. Industrial and logistics has been the standout performer, with 2025 take-up running almost 50% above 2024 levels, and the sector accounting for 36% of first-half 2026 investment volume, underpinned by the landmark €500 million sale of Horizon Logistics Park. In the Dublin office market, a two-tier dynamic has arisen between grade A stock and older stock, with starkly contrasting vacancy rates. With no speculative offices under construction, prime rents are projected to rise by approximately 6%, and notable transactions — such as the sale of One Molesworth Street to MEAG for €110 million — confirm renewed investor appetite. Retail pricing has arguably settled fastest, aided by the post-Covid regearing of leases and exceptionally low vacancy rates in retail parks. Hotels remain highly sought-after on the back of robust tourism figures.

The Living Sector and Government Intervention

The Irish government has indicated that Ireland wants to build high quality houses and apartments at pace and at scale, and that housing remains a top strategic priority of the Irish Government. The residential and living sector — encompassing private rented, build-to-rent, and purpose-built student accommodation — is where the most consequential policy shifts are taking place. The Residential Zoned Land Tax, levied at 3% annually on the market value of serviced land zoned for residential, is incentivising landowners to either build or sell for development. Reforms to rent controls, introduced in March 2026, now permit landlords to reset rents to market levels between tenancies and every 6 years, with no fixed cap on rent reviews for newly built apartments. A reduced VAT rate of 9% and the Croí Cónaithe subsidy scheme for apartments —to bridge the viability gap between high construction costs and open market value — represent meaningful government intervention to stimulate new supply.

These measures are a positive step, but they will not, on their own, resolve the viability challenge facing apartment development. Planning permission numbers have declined year-on-year since 2023, and well publicised inefficiencies in the planning system, continue to signal a potential future supply gap. International capital from the private sector is seen as critical to closing the gap in delivery, with the Government acknowledging the need for policy certainty to create a predictable and stable investment environment. 

Looking Ahead

The direction of travel is encouraging. Capital is available, pricing is recalibrating, and policy reforms are beginning to address structural barriers to supply. For those with the expertise to navigate the regulatory landscape, the Irish market offers compelling opportunities across multiple asset classes. The key will be execution — and ensuring that the regulatory frameworks keep pace with the ambition of both public policy and private investment.